Save the nature for the sake of your existence!- By Upal : Open pop-up on buttom left for audio blog. We are going through a tough time. The whole world seems to be in a stand still due the Coronavir...
Follow the leatest : Coronavirus what's new
Translate this page:
You can translate the content of this page by selecting a language in the select box.
30 May 2020
Note from author:
Our author has complied to write this blog with the condition his name/identity is withheld.
I am presenting a bare outline of the exponential growth of infection of Covid-19 or the new Coronavirus.It is an insight based on the reports from all over the world.The actual number may vary .The numbers may have changed so the statistics by the time you are you are reading.
People around the world living in uncertainty as there is no vaccine or established medicine to treat the virus.
4,71,000+ people affected worldwide.
21,000+ deaths reported
198 Countries and territories affected.
The graph illustrates number of people detected with Covid-19 worldwide.By the mid February the number started to increase drastically all over the world.Thus the Wuhan virus started to spread out in other provinces of China as well as in other countries.Today the virus has so far wreaked a havoc worldwide.Now, 1/4th of the world population is in lockdown.
According to the WHO, it takes around 67 days for the virus to affect 100,000 people.After that, within a week or two it can spread to 400,000 people!
It's undoubtedly an exponential growth.
Nay, it is difficult to count the real number of patitant or to predict as the stastics are changing everyday.But still there are some points to consider.
Now I would like to share some insights based on analytics over the cases in China and in the world.
(Based on statistics of March,2020.Follow the writing of Tomas Pueyo on Medium.com to get more informations.)
However death rate due to this virus varies from country to country. As of now,mortality rate in Italy is recorded highest 10.09%.
Let's consider the death rate 1%.
That means,if a death is reported,there are 99 more infected in that territory.
Again,that patiant was infected 17 days earlier.
At last,within that time,the infection has increased 2^(17÷6.3) or 8 times approximately.
There are 800 infected within that country or province.
We can say if a death is confirmed,there will be 800 infected exposed till that date!
So the only way to stop the spread of the virus is only to test everyone and quarantine them.
If you want to calculate possible infections in your country,use the mathmatical term bellow.
Count days after first death confirmed.
Add 17 to that.Get the sum.
Then devide the total by 6.3~6
Then use that as the exponent of 2 .
2^(sum/6.3~6)×100
But if the death rate is diffirent,it becomes quite complicated. But still you can count.
2^(sum÷6.3~6)×(100-death rate)
●It is a result based on statistics of the affected countries.The actual number may be different.
Please like this blog😊 <!-- LikeBtn.com BEGIN
Translate this page:
You can translate the content of this page by selecting a language in the select box.
The exponential growth of deadly new Coronavirus.
30 May 2020
Note from author:
Our author has complied to write this blog with the condition his name/identity is withheld.
I am presenting a bare outline of the exponential growth of infection of Covid-19 or the new Coronavirus.It is an insight based on the reports from all over the world.The actual number may vary .The numbers may have changed so the statistics by the time you are you are reading.
*I have collected all data from the official website of the WHO,Medium.com, Statista.com,Worldometers.info.
Contact me to know more about them.
Contact me to know more about them.
4,71,000+ people affected worldwide.
21,000+ deaths reported
198 Countries and territories affected.
According to the WHO, it takes around 67 days for the virus to affect 100,000 people.After that, within a week or two it can spread to 400,000 people!
It's undoubtedly an exponential growth.
Nay, it is difficult to count the real number of patitant or to predict as the stastics are changing everyday.But still there are some points to consider.
Now I would like to share some insights based on analytics over the cases in China and in the world.
- On average,a patient takes 17 days to die after being infected.Accoroding to the WHO,incubation period of Covid-19 is 2-10 days.Usually a patiant is admitted to hospital after 10-12 days of infection if he/she has severe condition.
- The virus takes 6.3 days on average to double the infection.
(Based on statistics of March,2020.Follow the writing of Tomas Pueyo on Medium.com to get more informations.)
However death rate due to this virus varies from country to country. As of now,mortality rate in Italy is recorded highest 10.09%.
Let's consider the death rate 1%.
That means,if a death is reported,there are 99 more infected in that territory.
Again,that patiant was infected 17 days earlier.
At last,within that time,the infection has increased 2^(17÷6.3) or 8 times approximately.
There are 800 infected within that country or province.
We can say if a death is confirmed,there will be 800 infected exposed till that date!
So the only way to stop the spread of the virus is only to test everyone and quarantine them.
If you want to calculate possible infections in your country,use the mathmatical term bellow.
Count days after first death confirmed.
Add 17 to that.Get the sum.
Then devide the total by 6.3~6
Then use that as the exponent of 2 .
2^(sum/6.3~6)×100
But if the death rate is diffirent,it becomes quite complicated. But still you can count.
2^(sum÷6.3~6)×(100-death rate)
●It is a result based on statistics of the affected countries.The actual number may be different.
Please like this blog😊 <!-- LikeBtn.com BEGIN
-->
Comments